Bottom Line Up Front
Russia, China, Nigeria, Lebanon are sure votes of Yes, while Bosnia, Gabon are likely a yes.
US, UK, France, Germany, India and Brazil are likely to vote No. India will also vote No.
Colombia sees more benefit in voting with the US, so they are a No. Portugal may say No, also.
I do not see the 9 vote majority for a state of Palestine; however, my experience in the Middle East and West Africa tells me that the vote, either way, is not going to pass without violence.
I wanted to better understand what the statistics were in relation to the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Sadly, the site which came up immediately are blatantly falsified. For instance, disturbingfacts.blogspot.com indicates that there is absolutely no, zero, aid to the Palestinians from the US. According to the US Congressional Research Service,
Since the establishment of limited Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in the mid-1990s, the U.S. government has committed over $4 billion in bilateral assistance to the Palestinians, who are among the world’s largest per capita recipients of international foreign aid.
Israel is mentioned twice in the charter, Article 17 calls the establishment of Israel “illegal, null, and void” and Article 19 as Israel as the spearhead of Colonialism. Let’s think about this for a moment, colonialism was really noticed when those filthy colonialists in the new world felt they should not have to pay the Crown any taxes for tea. Colonialism and the modern state of Israel came one or two hundred years after islam, yet islam has been at war with colonialism and Israel. The last time I saw such a time/space differential was on Doctor Who.
Furthermore, since 2008 the US has given an average of $600 million per year to Abbas and Gaza Strip NGO’s. Which NGO’s operate freely and openly throughout Gaza, I have no idea; however, if the islamic powers there run aid like I have personally witnessed in Mogadishu in particular, and Somalia in general, there are only islamic aid organizations there. Again, if these organizations operate as in Somalia, then we can rest assured that aid is siphoned, skimmed, and sold before getting to the hands of anyone who is truly in need.
Aid and other details like who shot who and who stabbed who notwithstanding, let’s just consider the Charter of 1968 which established the Palestinian Authority (PA) under Yasser Arafat. In the Preamble, if you will, the Charter mentions the Palestinian homeland 4 times in 7 sentences. It also chastises the UN for supporting acts against the PA. Forgive me for my confusion, but I see the PA as now demanding and all but begging for entrance into the UN as a nation even though it denounces the UN and its founding principles. Another obvious point which I see in the charter is that these people are consistently using the term Palestinian Arab. Shouldn’t the Saudi ARABIANS offer up some of their land? It’s not like there is a shortage of sand to build on in Saudi Arabia.
Also in the Preamble is the statement that there is a right to a free and dignified life. Now, perhaps it is that I was raised in the West and understand that Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of happiness is guaranteed. To me this means that I have the right to pursue, to seek after , to attempt to attain happiness. The US Constitution does not guarantee or promise that I get to live my life happily ever after. In contrast, the Palestinian charter seems to say that they have suffered enough and that the world has to keep them happy.
The lands in which Palestine is alleged to be is an area that has been fought over and divided by the victors for centuries. In 1947 the British won the conflict that left them with te lands and people to care for. Not able to afford the care and feeding of all these new lands while rebuilding itself after the intense bombardment they suffered at the hands of the Germans, Tthe Brits apportioned the land to its allies, a normal custom for the victor in war. I believe that islamic law gives instruction for the apportioning of the spoils of war. We can look at the ninth century legal work of Muhammad ibn al-Hasan al-Shaybani who authored The Islamic Law of Nations: Shaybani’s Siyar the instructions are to first invite infidels to become muslim. If they say no, then invite them to leave their lands. If they refuse to leave but become muslims, then they can partake in no spoils of war, like the Bedouin. The invited is also to be offered an opportunity to pay lizya, which is an ongoing ransom for their lives.
Clearly, the dividing up of the spoils of war is something which is understood and practiced by the muslim; yet, they take issue at it now because the Palestinians lost in the war ending in 1947.
At any rate, the UN Security Council is going to vote on the recognition of Palestinian Statehood. This is not very comforting, considering that the UN and the UNSC have not been able to come to a single definition of things like Terrorism, support of human rights, and slavery. Even though my blog has been hacked and some of the material is gone, much of the profiles I put together on the UNSC members is still there. Of interest, Brazil, Gabon, Bosnia, Lebanon, and Nigeria are all going to be off of the UNSC as of December 31st this year. Human trafficking and child prostitution are about the worst I can currently say comes to mind when I think about Bosnia and Brazil. Sadly, Gabon, Lebanon, and Nigeria are awash with violence, human rights violations, rape and torture in prisons, enforced disappearances still continue as do child soldiers and child prostitution. The next five are going to be India, Colombia, Germany, Portugal, and South Africa. India is fighting its own wars against islamic hordes and on many fronts. Colombia is also fighting drug cartels and renegade soldiers. Germany has been relatively kind to the world since that whole 1947 thing. Portugal is a wonderful spot for state instituted child prostitution and abuse of minors. Visit Portugal, it is lovely, just do not be an orphan there.
In short, a bunch of violent, paranoid, extreme governments, some being antithetical to openly hostile to the West and Israel, are going to vote on another state that aligns with their anti-West stance while we and our allies are liable to vote against it. In order to be recognized by the UN as a state the UNSC must vote in favor by nine for the Palestinians.
Iran wants to see this happen, although they are not on the UNSC I believe that the Iran/Syria alliance is going to be used to directly pressure Lebanon, already paying Syria to not wipe it off the map, into voting for Palestine.
Nigeria is facing near daily violence by muslims against Christians and its own governing bodies. Not want to light the short fuse to an already volatile situation, Nigeria is going to vote for Palestine.
Bosnia has not forgotten the violence, nor has its Croat/Bozhniak alliance weakened. If not abstaining, it will probably go to vote yes for Palestine.
China and Russia will most assuredly vote yes, as a Palestinian state would just be a pain and an expense to the US and the West. That makes five, right off the top for Palestine.
France, US, and the UK will vote no.
Even though Obama is no friend of Israel, he will vote against Palestine. Not for ideology, but for votes from the Jewish community in the US which has historically supported the Democratic Party. If it were not for the loss of NY District 9, I believe that Obama would have voted for recognition of Palestine.
I am loathe predicting the others, but may give it some consideration. My experience in the Middle East and West Africa tells me that the vote, either way, is not going to pass without violence.