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Thursday, July 21, 2011

Assessment of Today's Articles

The articles that I have summarized in these points below are posted. I encourage you to read the articles. My thoughts are listed as Assessments.

ASSESSMENT: Iran is also heavily involved in Eritrea. That puts the southern choke point of the Red Sea under observation of Iran. What would happen to shipping or regional security and global relations is MA was able to squeeze off that point? All the trade and shipping that goes through there would either have to pay his fee for crossing or go around the southern tip of Africa. Either way, the cost would be astronomical and unsustainable.

ASSESSMENT: The Middle East is already mentally braced for what is being called the inevitability of the next war. Ahmadinijad is calling it WWIII.

ASSESSMENT: Here we have the leader of a nation that provides a significant portion of the world’s oil. He is almost nuclear capable. Now, with oil demands and usage increasing along with the price of oil, Ahmedinijad is a well funded, well armed, lunatic who could hold global shipping hostage. He has already stated that he would retaliate to U.N. and other international sanctions with force. He has told Europe that, should hostilities break out, that the EU may suffer collateral damage.
            How to deal with this, or any other, lunatic with nuclear arms is beyond my realm; however, shorting his flow of cash would be of benefit to all in the world, not just the U.S. While developing our own resources of petroleum and renewable forms of energy, the global oil market would very likely see an increase in prices. That would hurt in the short to mid term. The long term would see things turn. As we develop as a non-OPEC oil producer with markets that are accessible without going through the Red Sea or the SoH or around the tip of Africa, the U.S. economy and power position would improve dramatically.
            Would this completely pull the teeth out of the cobra of Middle Eastern Oil, no. Would it cause angst globally and domestically? Yes. A weakened East and a stronger West coupled with improvements upon renewable resources would place the United States in a very, very powerful position. Do not mistake this, a position of power IS a position of freedom.


Some believe that war with the West is inevitable
            'Abd Al-Bari 'Atwan, editor of the London daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi the U.S. Is Working to Line Up the Gulf States to Back Sanctions and a Military Move against Iran
            "Clinton's requests of her Gulf hosts can be boiled down to three points:"
"1) Making tempting offers to China of low[-cost] gas and oil ...
"2) Involving [the Gulf countries] in the blockade or economic sanctions on Iran...
"3) Opening bases, ports, and airports [of the Gulf states] to American, and perhaps [also] Israeli, planes, ships, and forces, in case of a military move against Iran..

Egyptian MP Muhammad 'Ali Ibrahim, editor of the Egyptian government daily Al-Gumhouriyya, wrote in his editorial that Iran has already made the first move towards war

Iran and Saudi Arabia control the Strait of Hormuz while the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea are watched closely by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Eritrea/Iran coalition.
1/3 of the world’s oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz
All oil producing Middle Eastern states depend on the SoH for shipping oil to world markets
"Tehran Aims to Turn Yemen into a Regional Arena for Conflict, as Part of Its Ongoing Dispute with Several Countries in the Region"

M.A. also threatened that if new sanctions are [imposed] on his country in response to its nuclear program, he will cause the superpowers to regret it
M.A. sees the unification of the ME as a necessity of and being done by Islam, with himself as the great leader

What kind of a person, a madman would say, "Is there art that is more beautiful, more divine, and more eternal than the art of martyrdom?" Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, then Iran's President-elect, mused in a television address in 2005. "A nation with martyrdom knows no captivity."

The major political implication of the study is the inference that Ahmadinejad is relatively impervious to influence by diplomatic or economic means and not conflict averse, which heightens the risk that he would be psychologically inclined to use military force with minimal provocation to counter perceived threats to regime survival.
primary personality patterns were found to be paranoid and narcissistic  with secondary sadistic, antisocial patterns (http://www.immelman.us/news/profile-of-mahmoud-ahmadinejad/)

Chaos is central to Ahmadinejad's religious beliefs and, by extension, his hopes for the future. He believes, as many zealous Shi'ites do, that the Twelfth Imam, or "Mahdi," a messianic figure from the ninth century, will soon reappear to signal the end of the modern world and the onset of Islamic justice over all the earth. Ahmadinejad believes that his presidency will herald the Mahdi.

1 comment:

  1. A key point that I would add. For the Mahdi to return, extreme choas must exist. As such, any potential instabilty is likely to be viewed as a sign of their prophecy. Perhaps, they would even welcome it if they truly want the return of the Mahdi.

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