Follow by Email

Total Pageviews

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Syria A Failing State or Burgeoning State of Multitheism?

Syria truly is more of a keystone state than most give it credit for. I have several blog entires from more than a year ago looking at the mess there. Syrian sectarian and ethnic divisions into individual sovereign states would begin the rush for more similar states across the Middle East.

Syria is now closing in on the end of its second year of fighting. It is in no way an internal fight. What started as an ethnic cleansing by al-Assad, who follows a Shi'ite form of Islam, has spilled over its own borders into Jordan and Turkey, thus threatening a broader internastional conflict. There are a growing number of deaths in both of these neighboring countries. These would include the assassination by car bomb of Jordian Intelligence office, Brg. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan in Beirut.

While there is enough tumult going on in Syria, what is the view of the regional states? The London based editor of Al-Quds Al-Arabia, Abd al-Atwan, warns that no country isd immune to the risks of dividing into ethnic and sectareian lines. What? There is a risk of a country being a mix of ethnicities and religious beliefs? What if a country existed that allowed people to believe as they wanted? My goodness, that would mean no state religion and less control over peoples thoughts and actions! No, not that! Anything but a country with the American First Amendment protections! Seriously, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Jordan, Iraq, and the other Arabian Street and Gulf State actors loathe the idea of this happening anywhere in the world. They will do anything to prevent it in their backyard.

Atwan warns his readers globally that if the Alawhites get to have a state, the Sunni's will get to have a state, the Kurds will have a stae, Saudi Arabia will have to provide a state for al-Aksa, the Coptic Christians in Egypt wouldf get their own sovereign state. I cannot stress how horrific an idea this is to the domineering views of Sunni and Shi'ite sects throughout the Middle East.

Almost all of the Middle EAstgern states have come together and voiced their commitment towards preventing Syria from falling into this abyss of partitioning with its sectarian and ethnic violence. How's that working so far? There is no sectarain violence or ethnic violence of any sort within these countries. Copts in Egypt, Kashmiris in between Pakistan and India, and so on.

How does Iran fit into this? Iran, a Shi'ite dominated country, plays into a number of issues that directly and indirectly impact Americans.

Iran is sending troops, Basij (child suicide soldiers), heavy munitions, weapons, as well as financial and medical aid into Syria on a frighteningly regular basis. How they are doing this is by using both ground transportation, previously with the knowledge and highly probable assistance of Iraqi indicted PM Maliki, and via air transportation through Iraqi airspace. How is this going to impact anything in America? It's just regional, reight? It's contained within Syria, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, right? Really contained.

How this impacts the united states immediately is that these countries are also OPEC members. We are currently buying their oil. We are dependcant upon their oil right now, not our own greater resources available domestically and at far lower costs. Look at a map of the region and you will see the Suez Canal, Straights of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Aden. More than 80% of the world's international shipping goes through there. Going around the African continent takes far too much time, whih is why the Suez Canal was built. If this region degrades furhter into choas, conflict, and more violence, most everything we buy is goipng to skyrocket in cost.

I believe that we already understand that Iran is investing so much into the Assad regime that Iran expects to be able to expand into Syria. If this happens, we again come to the Suex Canal. I can see IRan charging for ships to enter or exit safely, just as Egypt chargesa for transit through the canal. Again, due to the risks and costs involved due to pirates, the Egyptian fees for transit, and the IRanian fees, it is clear how this will also raise costs on the massive amounts of global shipping through the region.What would Iranian missile silos and anti ship m,issiles along the coast look like? Suppose there was an Iranian nuclear cruise missile stationed there? That threatens more shipping and all of Europe. Even though Khameini and Ahmedinijad are at odds with each other regarding nuclear capacity of any sort, Khameini has proven powerless in stopping Ahmedinijad's nuclearv progress.

Syria truly is more of a keystone state than most give it credit for. Syrian sectarian and ethnic divisions into individual sovereign states would begin the rush for more similar states across the Middle East. There is already enough strife and tension between Sunni and Shi'ite, you can only imagine the carnmage and chaos that would result from Christians, Kurds, and other religious sects having their own states not answerable to Suadi Arabian, Iranian, or other powerful states in the region.

No comments:

Post a Comment