Syria's Major Supporters And Why

There has been a lot of press and talk about the Assad regime and the violence that is spreading slowly out of its borders. We have seen Iran as a major supporter of Bashar al-Assad. Today we need to look at the top three political and material supports that Assad has. Those three supporting nations, in ascending order, are China, Russia, and Iran. This analysts will not take into account UN votes, but financial and material support. China has its trade route and an ideolgue supporting some of their territorial views. Russia maintains a stronger military presence in the eastern Mediteranean, profits from arms sales, and has invested billions into Syrian infrastructure. Iran, we can easily state that they are knee deep in the hooplah and they are in it for the full range of what happens.

China has quite a financial interst with Syria. China, as of February this year, was Syria's third largest export country. Recall history, Syria was part of the Silk Road. Even today, china sees Syria as a trading and shipping hub. A rather important hub, at that. Ideologically, Hu Jintao and Assad have given support to each other on some views that have caused strong international angst over. Those views include Syrian support of China's claims and treatment of Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjang, and on China's application of human rights. China continues to support Assad on his claims over the Golan Heights.

China and Syria find mutually beneficial financial and ideological support for each other.

Russian support for the Assad regime includes military and financial interests as well. The depth of these interests goes far deeper than those of China.

Financially Russia is looking to recover financial interests are closely tied to its military interests in the region. The port at Tartus provides a strategic foothold. The Black Sea Fleet uses the port facilities for ship maintenance, supply, and logistics. The facilities at Tartus and the power grud in the surrounding area infrastructure has benefitted from Russia's investing $19.4 billion dollars in 2009. As of 2011 the facilities and piers at Tartus can, and have, supported guided missile cruisers and Kuznetzov class aircraft carriers. Russia continues to act in ways that undermine American interestts.

Russia may also be getting some isolationism ideas like the  methods used during the Cold War. At that time the West made strategic allies in order to surround Russian expansion and stop their geographic spread. Current examples include US support to Bahrain and Uzbekistan. I believe that this gambit is one that will completely fail for the West.

The Russian Liberal Democratic Party leader, Vladimir Zhimorovsky, has made some very strong statements againsty Western support to the rebels. Statements that indicate there is much more going on than is currently visible. Zhimorovsky has said that any US support to the rebels is "absolutely unacceptable" and would, in his eyes be, tantamount to violently toppling a regime.

Russia gains a naval forward support base and earns billions from arms sales. Commercially, Russia has earned $5 billion in weaponss sales to Damascus.

Iranian Support is all geared towards gaining a physical and very strategic position in the region. Iran has been so completely isolated from decent international contact for so long that the leadership is looking for any way to expand out of their isolation. By any means includes the blatant shipments by air and over land as well as the hardcer to see support through Hezbollah and in assisting Assad with the training and manning, as it were, of an army of children suicide bombers and fighters. This last group is known as the Basij, which Ahmedinijad claims to be. Judging by his age and grey hair, I openly declare him a failure in his service as a child soldier/suicide bomber. If Ahmedinijad could have done that right 40 years ago his poor judgement and mistakes wouldn't be an issue now.

Seriously, Iran already has missiles that can strike Israel from inside its borders, but, I am guessing that the guidance systems still leve something to be desired. Iran has successfully launched mutlistage rockets and put sattelites into orbit, but, they have yet to demonstrate the capacity to deliver their paylods at range. Every missilt that Iran has, buys, and makes can carry a nuclear payload. Iran is even working on its own independent re-entry vehicle. This IRV makes enough people at the IAEA to start investigations, not that any inspection will receive compliance from Ahmedinijad or Khameini.

Iran has the largest missile surplus in the Middle East. One of their missile production/storage sites was just bombed in Sudan earlier this week. Reports of this Israerli lead attack state that 300 Shahab III missiles there were destroyed. Iran is trying to put its own strike missile system in place in Syria. Why would they not expect to be allowed to? That is, should Assad not die in place.

Just imagine the changes that would most undoubtedly take place if Russia and Iran had missile silos in Syria while the US missile defense system, which Obama unplugged and dismantled, absent from the region. Could we ever again have allies in Eastern Europe? Could we carry on trade theough that region? No, not at all. The US Naval Fleet coverage and the protections it guarantees would be stripped away from the Mediteranean, through the Gulf of Aden, off the Somali pirate coast, and into the Indian Ocean.

Obama Carter Clinton Power Plant and Plans Opinion

The agreement which Obama appears to be making a deal that would be shouldered by a future administration, not at all by him. Whether that was by plan in 1994 I cannot say with certainty.

Not all plans carry out in life as they were designed to on paper. Such is the case with President Clinton and former President Carter. President Clinton wanted to allow NK to have a light water reactor (LWR) so that Kim Jung Il could provide power for his country to improve their living conditions. After all, even Kim Jung Il has a right to peaceful nuclear power so that his people could  have energy to power their cities so that the people could live at a higher standard. Right?

Lets jump to Cairo in 2009 when Obama says to the world that even Iran should be allowed to have nuclear power so that the Iranian people could have energy to power their cities so that the people could live at a higher standard. Sounds familiar? Yes, it should.

In between these two events of Clinton-Carter providing an LWR to Nirth Korea and the Cairo speech, there is a long history for North Kirea and Iran both violating every sanction against them as we'll a every agreement entered into insofar as non proliferation goes.

The Council on Foreign Relations makes reference to released diplomatic cables from WikiLeaks. Iran and North Korea were both benefitting from Pakistani scientist, A. Q. Khan. It was known that shipments between Iran and NK were going through China. The Kgan network collaborated on ballistic missiles.

Both NK and Iran have centrifuges which are similar enough that it is clear the Khan network brought these three countries together, in my opinion, for nuclear proliferation.

Should we be opposed to Iranians having energy that us more reliable than what they have now? No.

Obama is I the same mind that Clinton and Carter were. Only now, Obama I deliberately forgetting the years of violated sanctions, the years of threats against Israel and America from the same people he is cutting a deal with. It was a foolish and morbidly poor decision then. It is only worse now because Obama, allegedly educated, is ignoring a painfully recent lesson. This time.ir is Obama Biden Clinton. 

Week In Review September 9, 2011

I have written quite a bit this week about Iran and its apparent intentions. Monday I had asked if Iran is planning on being the seat of the caliphate. The answer to that is yes, I believe that Iran is planning to be the seat of the caliphate. It may have been al Qaeda that wrote the 7 Phases, but it is Iran that is carrying them out. Those phases are outlined below.

The First Phase is "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003.In short, to provoke and promote war.
The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." 
The Third Phase This is an "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria,"

The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments.

The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared.

The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.
The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory."

So far, Ahmedinijad is leading the way on this. Chaos is central to Ahmadinejad's religious beliefs and, by extension, his hopes for the future. He believes, as many zealous Shi'ites do, that the Twelfth Imam, or "Mahdi," a messianic figure from the ninth century, will soon reappear to signal the end of the modern world and the onset of Islamic justice over all the earth. Ahmadinejad believes that his presidency will herald the Mahdi.

It has come out that Iran was one of the first to purchase a missile launching system from Russia. This system, known as the Club K, can be hidden inside a cargo container and brought right into the target zone. Until it is activated the system is virtually undetectable. By the time that anyone knows the system is in place it will be far too late to do anything about the first few vollies of rockets launched. To make this even better, the Club K can deploy low level nuclear warheads.

With Syria being part of the aforementioned 7 Step Plan, I have looked more at the country than Obama and Clinton seem to. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to U.S. President Barack Obama: Your words are worthless. How much more succinct can that be? The East sees giving in and changing the way it conducting itself as giving up all their rights.Al-Assad, al-Basher of Sudan, and Ahmedinijad believe that it is their right to kill whoever gets in their way. No amount of apologizing by Obama or tes sipped at a table with Clinton is going to change that. While the UN eventually was tasked to bring a change in Libya, it is not likely here. As a proxy to Iran, al-Assad has said "Not in their wildest dreams – not now and not under different circumstances." an, in fact, continues to slaughter the Sunni population of his own country.

This week we got to read an excellent piece on the nine fronts of war that Israel is facing.  The Arab Spring has turned to an arid and deadly Arab Summer. The spreading chaos and failing of governments across the region would fit into the plan of Ahmedinijad to herald in the mahdi. In order to accomplish this, there must be utter chaos, and chaos is spreading like roaches in a tenement building. Iranian proxies are now surrounding Israel and Saudi Arabia. And Iran is moving ahead with alacrity to attain full nuclear capability.

Part of the recommended, and underdone, initiatives is the Container Security Initiative.; an initiative that would make the use of the Club K far more difficult from inside contiguous waters near large ports. The raid in Pakistan by the SEALs brought back plans that Osama was still planning to attack ports or attack from them. From the information I have seen, this piece of our national armor is another languishing from the neglect of the Appeaser in Chief and his lackeys.

Meanwhile, the TSA continues to steal, rape, and plunder the people and nation it is supposed to be protecting. Even the new Behavioral Assessment plan has had one member caught and arrested for assisting a drug courier.

But not to worry! Seriously, Napolitano has just paid out some $12 million dollars under the Homeland Fiscal Grant Allocations decision. After reviewing them there is not one penny given to detect or to look at suspect shipping containers. She has paid $12 mil into "feel good" programs that, in the end, will amount to squat. The letter written by Dr. Jim Giermanski, Chairman Powers Global Holdings, Inc. makes that point abundantly clear.

(http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/07/assessment-of-todays-articles.html).

“But, surely, we can talk reason to them” I hear at the coffee shops. To which I reply, “You can’t talk reason to the insane and don’t call me Shirley.” Peaceful discourse, mutually supportive policies, economic growth, and the realization of certain inalienable rights to all peoples is one way of summarizing US goals and diplomatic efforts. Achieving these goals anywhere has proven difficult. Achieving these goals in the Middle East has proven impossible, at least for the past several decades. Dealing with Iran and Syria has been emblematic of this struggle faced by US policy makers.

We, as a nation, are facing several threats and problems. Many of which can be dealt with in the immediate and short term by opening up jobs in America. Those jobs that would help us most to increase manufacturing and decrease our reliance on the importation of OPEC petroleum (which is now run by a person identified by the US Treasury and the State Department as a criminal whose assets should be frozen, an apparent supporter of terror, and legally banned from doing business with US persons and corporations) are in the US petroleum market. By lifting Theban on US drilling, authorizing the Keystone XL Pipeline, and lowering taxes on businesses there would be an immediate jump in employment and national revenue due to nearly 2million people going to work. This would also serve our nation in the mid and long term as we would quickly get stronger and would be able to exploit the natural gas and oil reserves in a cleaner and safer manner than those in the Middle East. These reserves, mind you, are estimated to represent some 92% of the world’s resources by 2032.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and, please, call your elected officials and insist they support America.

Share this blog with all your friends, family, and opponents!

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2005/08/the_seven_phase.php#ixzz1XaDq7kim

http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/08/2011-dhs-fiscal-grant-allocations.html

http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/08/open-letter-to-secretary-napolitano.html

Nine Fronts in the Next War

After having written and posted several pieces regarding Iran and its malignant spread I find this piece at Front Page Magazine. The BLUF is that, in case of a war against Israel, nine fronts have the potential to exist. Israel is surrounded and will have to make one of two choices

1.      1. Fight conventionally and die

2.      2. Go nuclear

There will be no help from the Obama administration if it happens before the next election. That’s my take. Please, let me know your take.

Nine Fronts in the Next War

Posted By David Meir-Levi On September 7, 2011 @ 12:30 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage |

The current unrest pursuant to the “Arab Spring” is a mixed blessing for Iran. On one hand, if young Bashir were to fall, Iran will lose its most important ally in the western part of the Arab world. A break with Syria would be a serious defeat for Iran, since it would no longer be able to supply Hezbollah directly, nor would it have direct contact and supervision over its proxy terror armies in Lebanon, the Sinai, and the Gaza Strip.  It would also be very bad news for Hezbollah, whose terrorist leaders rely heavily on Iranian supplies, funds, and armaments, all channeled into Lebanon via Syria.  Hamas too would suffer from a break in its link with its Iranian godfather.

But on the other hand, Iran is exploiting the great opportunity created by the chaos and upheaval of the “Arab Spring”.  Iran does not want to see its foothold in the west undermined by this upheaval, so it has helped Bashir in his use of extreme force; and it has also begun to manipulate the “Arab Spring” violence and unrest to its advantage.

To gain maximum benefit from the situation in Egypt and to turn the world’s attention from Syria, Iran has activated two of its proxies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to renew attacks on Israel: blowing up the natural gas pipeline from the northern Sinai to Israel, firing scores of rockets into Israeli towns and villages near the Gaza Strip, most recently launching three brutal attacks on civilians near Eilat, and more in the offing.  Igniting a new war between Israel and Egypt, or at least precipitating a crescendo in the incendiary calls for war from the Egyptian populous and neighboring Arab states, would be a marvelous win-win for Iran and for the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the best organized and most popular of the political groups contending for power in post-Mubarak Egypt.

If Israel’s response to the attacks from the Gaza Strip and Sinai were to trigger a war with Egypt, Israel is likely to win; but the turmoil and upheaval in the wake of that war would weaken the Egyptian generals currently ruling Egypt with a temporary de facto mandate.  Once shamed in defeat, they would lose credibility and popularity (there already have been protests against their continued rule and postponed elections).  This scenario would create the perfect storm into which the MB could sail to political control.  If, despite the attacks, Israel shows restraint, the MB can still shame the generals for not confronting Israel, and then either provoke a war or use the failure of the generals to confront Israel as a way to shame and weaken them and pave the way for the MB’s own rise to power.

Better yet, if Iran, through its proxies, could spark a war with Israel, and the other forces confronting Israel were to join in, Israel would be fighting on many fronts at once.  In that case, the likelihood of Israel’s victory is in question.

El Qaeda is thoroughly ensconced in the Sinai.  Currently Israel and Egypt are said to be in conversation about Egypt’s re-militarizing the Sinai, so perhaps the Egyptian army could be deployed against al-Qaeda and Hamas there.  But if the MB succeeds in gaining a position of political strength in Egypt, it is not likely that the Egyptian military will be deployed in the Sinai to drive al-Qaeda out.  Quite the opposite, the MB wants a military confrontation with Israel. So it is likely to see al-Qaeda in Sinai as an ally in such a war. And if the MB and al-Qaeda go to war against Israel, then Hamas in the Gaza Strip is sure to follow.  Hamas cannot stand idly by while its Egyptian brethren initiate the great final jihad against Israel.

With Egypt, al-Qaeda and Hamas attacking Israel on its southern and western fronts, Iran will want Hezbollah to get in on the action and make use of the thousands of rockets and missiles that it has stockpiled just for this very moment, thus opening a northern front.

Syria may have difficulty deploying a large military force on the Golan front if it must use its military against its civilian demonstrators; but Iran will be in a position to aid Syria in suppressing unrest (probably in a manner similar to what Bashir’s father Hafez el-Assad did in 1982), and young Bashir will want a distraction on the Golan front to turn his citizenry’s attention, and the opprobrium of the world, from his slaughter of unarmed demonstrators. Even if Bashir falls, undesirable for Iran but an eventuality that the Mullahs may be anticipating, a Syrian government run by the MB or other Islamo-fascists of that ilk will be delighted to join Egypt and others in a pincer-movement assault on Israel. So a Syrian Golan front is very likely to open once Israel is at war with Egypt, Hamas, el-Qaeda and Hezbollah.

In the West Bank, Hamas is strong because its extreme Islamo-fascist ideology and commitment to Israel’s annihilation hold the sympathies of many.  Fatah and the PLO, the main components of the PA, are condemned in some circles for their collaboration with Israel.  The PA will not be able to maintain a position of power if it chooses to sit out a war against Israel; especially since the PA is in stiff competition with Hamas for the hearts and minds of the West Bank electorate, and it looks like entering a shooting war with Israel is a good way to win those hearts and minds.  So it is very likely that another intifada could erupt once the southern, western and northern fronts are aflame, probably targeting the Israeli communities scattered throughout Judea and Samaria.  Such a terror offensive could cause high numbers of casualties but is not likely to create an existential military threat.  However, a West Bank terror war would be a serious distraction for Israel and would reduce Israel’s ability to concentrate its military on the fronts that are existential threats.

And then there are the Arab Israelis.  No one knows for sure how many Arab Israelis are active supporters of Hamas et al, but however many there are, they could be mobilized for fifth column terrorism against Israeli military bases, infrastructure, and civilians: another distraction that would sap Israel’s ability to face the greater threats on its borders.

Egypt, al-Qaeda in Sinai, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria in the Golan, Palestinian terrorist forces in the West Bank, and Arab Israelis in downtown Israel: Seven fronts.

But there’s more!

Jordan sits on a powder keg and the MB is itching to light the fuse.  If the MB succeeds in supplanting the Hashemites, there can be little doubt that the newly Islamized Jordan will join the war against Israel, at very least by aiding and abetting the West Bank Arab terrorists, and perhaps by launching their own invasion from the east: front number eight.

Iran is moving ahead with alacrity to achieve WMD capabilities, despite some setbacks engineered by Israel over the past 5 years (Stuxnet being the most recent). Iran already has missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads to Israel and beyond.  West Bank or Israeli Muslims vaporized by Iran’s nuclear attack are not part of the Mullahs’ concerns.  Muslim men will be martyrs, united with their celestial virgins (unclear what happens to the women and children), and besides, “Allah knows best who is wounded in His way.”[i] The Arabs of the West Bank and Israel are merely expendable pawns , collateral damage, just part of the price that the Arab world must pay for its final victory over Israel.  Syria is a very important part of this equation, because Syria has substantial stockpiles of missiles and chemical warheads which can be deployed against all of Israel at very close range, to augment the internal terrorism from the West Bank and from Arab Israelis, and to mop up whatever of Israel may survive Iran’s nuclear attack.

So Iran is front number nine – and it will be a nuclear front.

In short, Israel is in greater danger now than it has ever been, even more so than during its 1948 war of survival.

Notes:

[i] A quote from Hassan al-Banna, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, from his writings on Jihad, quoting a Hadith from Sahih Bukhari.  See http://web.youngmuslims.ca/online_library/books/jihad/ and http://www.sunnipath.com/library/Hadith/H0002P0061.aspx for Qur’anic and extra-Qur’anic sources.

http://frontpagemag.com/2011/09/07/nine-fronts-in-the-next-war/print/